The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has announced a shift in the predicted onset of the La Niña weather pattern this year, pushing its anticipated arrival later than previously expected. While earlier forecasting called for an onset during the summer months, more recent predictions delay the likelihood of La Niña’s arrival until early fall.

La Niña exists as one of three possible ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) states, which are recurring climate patterns causing relatively predictable shifts in water temperatures, rainfall, and weather across the tropics. The three ENSO states include El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral — the state in which we are currently.

Current NOAA models now estimate a 66% chance of La Niña emergence between September- November, with a 74% chance of the conditions persisting through the winter months of November- January.

“While a later arrival may delay the onset of certain environmental impacts associated with La Niña, such as intensified storms due to less wind shear, it will not eliminate the chances of Southwest Florida feeling those effects upon the weather pattern’s arrival,” said SCCF Policy Associate Allie Pecenka.

Trends of warming waters in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic also increase the likelihood of more powerful storms, leading to predictions for an extremely active hurricane season if coupled with the storm-strengthening nature of La Niña.

Additional impacts of La Niña include a dry, warmer-than-average winter in the Southern United States and a wet, colder-than-average winter up North.

“The continued collection and analysis of climate, weather, and water quality data by groups like NOAA and SCCF’s RECON network help provide the scientific community information to inform accurate predictions for Southwest Florida and its environment,” Pecenka said.